Original post here.

The breaking out of the stages seems a little arbitrary. Even accepting that though, the timeline is perhaps a little slow:

Did “social colonization”, the use of shared identities across different areas of the Web, really only start this year? Is “social context” really something we’re still wating for? Is “social commerce” something that won’t be mature for another four years? It’s that last one that I think is the most problematic. If there’s a future for the Web that we can imagine from where we are it seems like it’s closer than 2013. Whatever the Web looks like by then probably isn’t going to be something that anyone is predicting now. Consider that in 2005 there wasn’t just no Twitter, but the entire status-updating, life-streaming, micro-messaging genre of social technology wasn’t really even on the horizon yet.